Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 2.047069e-01 0.243592 0.285248 0.332919 0.385691 0.442062 0.506567
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 1.532644e-01 0.205373 0.265408 0.338583 0.424274 0.520417 0.635405
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.105332e-01 0.167825 0.238872 0.330806 0.444040 0.576537 0.740865
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.384066e-02 0.144115 0.224299 0.333776 0.474555 0.645057 0.862690
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.098932e-02 0.120281 0.205262 0.327688 0.491734 0.696822 0.965430
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.203004e-02 0.097203 0.183065 0.313844 0.496380 0.731626 1.047216
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.254354e-02 0.086669 0.176957 0.320705 0.527689 0.800518 1.172949
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.276835e-02 0.072479 0.162609 0.313494 0.538266 0.841715 1.263524
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.875208e-02 0.068341 0.163809 0.329211 0.581207 0.926712 1.412546
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.365001e-02 0.059827 0.155904 0.329552 0.601322 0.980760 1.521474
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.846772e-03 0.052684 0.149114 0.330634 0.621931 1.035423 1.631780
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.624809e-03 0.048790 0.147810 0.340394 0.655552 1.108635 1.768070
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.870294e-03 0.045513 0.147469 0.352114 0.693250 1.189509 1.917861
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.425628e-03 0.042353 0.146814 0.363088 0.730054 1.269899 2.068474
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.663091e-03 0.036017 0.137797 0.358008 0.740930 1.312893 2.167989
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.740554e-03 0.032456 0.134493 0.363029 0.767940 1.379710 2.301549
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.920498e-04 0.027421 0.126277 0.357723 0.777479 1.420652 2.399127
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.067975e-04 0.021675 0.114384 0.343704 0.771407 1.437671 2.462606
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.506531e-04 0.019858 0.113268 0.351413 0.802271 1.510738 2.606927
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.730908e-05 0.016234 0.105385 0.343991 0.806436 1.542934 2.692649
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.190685e-05 0.015979 0.108643 0.360873 0.853629 1.641951 2.876213
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.302443e-07 0.013852 0.104670 0.361330 0.871548 1.695821 2.994627
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.012048 0.101217 0.362540 0.890652 1.751662 3.116402